
Market Commentary Q1 - 2008
As a result of ongoing market volatility throughout the quarter, our JSG 60 (60% equity/40% fixed income) core portfolio generated a gross return representing a small decline over the previous quarter. Portfolios kept pace with key domestic and global indices, which were largely down. This negative volatility was expected and not a surprise. Of course, it is never fun when it comes. All funds delivered negative returns with the exception of the fixed income fund, which rose 1%. Our return for the first quarter was -2.55%.
Remember how past ‘major’ declines turned out to be mere blips?
The volatile quarter saw a general global market decline with many reactionary investors exiting financial and consumer stocks for “safe” commodities, which benefited from U.S. dollar weakness. The U.S. equity market fell over the quarter, with the Standard & Poor’s (S&P) 500 Index declining by 9.4% in U.S. dollar terms. Interesting enough, the U.S. market declines during the quarter, while dramatic, didn’t even make the list of the most newsworthy declines in recent memory. When we look back now at the some of the severe falls (more than 23%) on the S&P stock index in Q398, Q390 and Q487, they are now mere blips in the history of the S&P returns.
Global domino effect?
The 12-month return for the S&P 500 stock index had declined 18.7% by March 17, 2008. Many market commentators cautioned that the U.S. credit crisis had triggered a global domino effect that could be cataclysmic to investors everywhere. That was also the day that Bear Stearns Cos. Ltd. went into free fall and would have perished had it not been for a bailout by the Fed and purchased by JP Morgan Chase & Co. This near failure further fanned the flames against a backdrop of ongoing credit market deterioration and aggressive interest-rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, which invited further speculation that Fed intervention might be “too little, too late.”
Investors driven from the markets – at what cost?
Commentators spoke and news stories reported what I like to refer to as investor pornography, which predicted further unbridled market declines throughout the quarter. This fear drove many investors out of the markets completely. They may now ponder when to jump back in - perhaps at great cost. We need to remember that history has shown that today’s bad news is often a memory several weeks later – especially where the markets are concerned.
Do you remember what the bad news was 10 years ago? Nor me. I do know, however, that balanced, diversified portfolios did well during the last 10 years. We need to remember that timing the market does not work; it is time in the market that will reward investors.
Success in Succession Planning
Chances are no one understands how your business runs on a day-to-day basis better than you. But you don’t have a crystal ball and cannot predict the future. That’s why a succession plan is so important.
I recently had the pleasure of addressing the 81st Ontario Road Builders Association (ORBA) annual conference to talk about the importance of succession planning. You may have been there.
Surprisingly, a study of private company business owners done by PricewaterhouseCoopers in 2007 stated that 50% of respondents do not have a succession plan at all. As an associate member of the OSSGA, ORBA and the APABC, I am offering my services to help those family run businesses only in the aggregate and road building industries. You don’t have to be part of those numbers.
Traveling the road beyond – with confidence
What’s down the road? Will you sell your business, pass it on to a family member or operate it on a smaller scale? Is your business your retirement plan?
I can help you establish your vision for your future, your family, and your business. I have developed “The Road Beyond Program” which helps create a plan for life beyond your road building and aggregate business. It is comprised of 5 different strategies. My program helps consolidate the thought process and focuses on getting results for formulating a plan for the ultimate succession of your business. We offer a free 90 minute strategy session to help you develop a written Road Beyond Vision - the starting point.
If you are interested in starting your succession plan, please call our office or send me an email for further information.
“Though no one can go back and make a brand new start, anyone can start from now and make a brand new ending.” Author Unknown
I wish you a pleasant spring and summer season. Please contact me for your succession planning needs or if you should require a second opinion on your investment portfolio, retirement or estate plan.


